For those of you who don’t remember, back in 2002 South Korea and Japan hosted the World Cup.  Neither country had ever made much of a dent on the world soccer scene, so expectations for their success in the tournament was not high.

Lo and behold, the South Koreans made the damn semi-finals, knocking off Spain and then Italy in two of the more controversial matches in the tournament.  The Italian match was especially curious.  Not only were the South Koreans awarded a controversial penalty late in the game, the ref also sent off Italy’s best player under dubious circumstances, and disallowed an Italian goal that would have won the Italians the game.  Needless to say, the Italians eventually lost the game.  Now the entire country of Italy knows how Roy Jones feels.

Afterward, that referee, Byron Moreno, jumped in a solid gold jet that the South Korean Football Association paid for, and flew back to Ecuador to count his money.

Whatever the South Koreans paid him wasn’t enough.  Shortly after returning home, he was banned from referring in Ecuador after he put ELEVEN minutes of extra time on a game.  A game which he obviously had a side interest in…

Now comes the news that he has been arrested in New York for trying to smuggle heroin into the US.  No word yet on how much the South Koreans will have to pay to get him out of jail.  Who knows?  Maybe they used up all their extra cash trying to assasinate Apolo Ohno?

NFC North Standings

Bears     2-0 (1-0)

Packers 2-0 (0-0)

Vikings  0-2 (0-0)

Lions      0-2 (0-1)

If you’re a Lions fan or a Packers fan, that looks awfully familiar.  If you’re a Bears fan, it looks surprising but plausible.  If you’re a Vikings fan, it looks like it’s time to make a choice between Jim Beam or Jack Daniels (may I suggest both?). 

While the Vikings start might be a bit shocking, it’s nothing compared to the news out of Detroit this week.  The Lions, after years of torturing their fans with the ugly product on the field, have finally decided to give them something to look at instead of fat sweaty guys:  CHEERLEADERS!  No more will Lions fans in need of amusement have to stare with wonderment at the size of Jeff Backus’ enormous behind, wondering how much grease it took to fit it into those silver pants.  No sir, the Lions have entered the 20^th century, exploiting women as sex objects for fun and profit.  God bless their patriarchal little hearts. 

Honey, everyone is going to be watching you by the end of the second quarter...

It’s only right.  The football gods have spent an inordinate amount of time fucking with Lions fans.  It’s about time they gave something back.  The huge scale at the center of the universe that decides what is right and what is not just clicked one notch to the side of righteousness.  It’s the Ford family’s way of giving something back after that whole Pinto thing.

But what about the boys in sweaty pants?  Well, wonder no more…

MINNESOTA VIKINGS STATE OF THE PROGRAM:

Old.

Hey Brett, are you still just having fun out there?  You might be able to skip training camp when you’re 25…or 30…or 35…but 40?  You might need a few weeks to get in shape when you’re 40.

Favre looks terrible.  His mistakes single-handedly cost the Vikings in week two against the Dolphins.  While he made fewer mistakes in week one, he was also less dynamic and was awful in the second half when the game was there to be won.  In both games the Vikings defense played well enough to win; in both games the offense was anemic.  They are now second to last in the league in points per game and in the bottom third in passing yards.

Favre is ranked 32^nd in Bill Barnwell’s quarterback rankings this week, making him the lowest rated QB in the division….a division that includes Shaun Hill.  Its quite a comedown for the King of Kiln.  Even a bigger comedown for the Vikings, who are throwing caution to the wind one last time before the inevitable rebuilding project.

That sound you hear are the last hairs on Brad Childress’ head slowly falling to the ground, like snow falling on cedars.  And if you listen close enough, you can hear the sound of Vincent Jackson’s bank account growing.  Greg Camarillo ain’t gonna help you, Vikes.  You need a home run hitter.  Getting Jackson might not make the Vikes back into a Super Bowl contender, but NOT getting him will make them into the third place team in this division.

The Vikes are about to pay Vincent enough money so he no longer has to ride on the outside of planes

Trending: Down.

DETROIT LIONS STATE OF THE PROGRAM:

Still cursed. 

The Lions did little to win their first game of the season other than watch the Bears try to hand it to them.  In typical Lions fashion, they politely declined.  The Lions have spent the last 50 years politely declining to take victory from others.  They are the most well mannered team in NFL history.

And living proof that nice guys finish last.  Once again the Lions start off the season in grand fashion.  As most of the football watching world knows by now, Calvin Johnson caught a pass from Shaun Hill (more on him in a minute) in the last seconds against the Bears to seemingly give the Lions the win.  But the officials decided that CJ having the ball in his hands, then hitting the ground, then rolling over, then putting his other hand out of bounds, was not enough to constitute a “catch” in today’s NFL.  The rule is so convoluted that it’s difficult to say one way or another.  It was clear to most of us that he caught the ball, but it is also clear that under the rule, the officials could legitimately say he didn’t.

And if 50 years of Lion-dom have taught us anything, it’s that if the choice is for the football gods to help the Lions or screw the Lions, you better have some lube ready or it’s going to be a painful Monday.

Speaking of painful, it’s Matt Stafford.  The Lions golden boy didn’t last a week this season.  Thanks to the turnstile of Jeff Backus on his left, Stafford was crushed by Julius Peppers and will now miss most of the first half of the season with a shoulder injury.  The same shoulder he hurt last season.  Notice a pattern?  Until the Lions upgrade from the Five Pillars of Puff Pastry that are there to theoretically protect Stafford, he will never be healthy and the Lions will never return to the franchise glory days of 8-8.

As solid as Jeff Backus, but with twice the calories!

The bright spot?  Jahvid Best.  Put the kid on turf and he can flat out fly.  While held in check against a re-born Bears defense, Best ripped the Eagles for 12 first downs and two scores.  He was the fastest man on the field not named DeSean Jackson or Mike Vick and looks like the homerun hitter the Lions haven’t had since Barry Sanders was ripping through defenses on his way to Canton.

Trending: Even.

GREEN BAY PACKERS STATE OF THE PROGRAM:

Hurt.

Green Bay opened the season against a rebuilding Eagles club and followed that up against the worst team in the league by playing Buffalo.  In Philly they dominated the Iggles, built a big lead, and knocked out their starting QB.  It wasn’t until Mike Vick came on for some late heroics did the game get close.  They destroyed Buffalo.

Neither game showed us much we didn’t already know.  Green Bay’s offense is very good.  Green Bay’s defensive front seven can get after the QB as well as any team in the league.  Green Bay’s secondary is vulnerable.

And Green Bay is injured.

Ryan Grant went out in week one and is out for the season.  Al Harris has yet to return.  Justin Harrell is out for the season.  Charles Woodson is having problems with his toes.  Chad Clifton is hobbling on a bad knee.  Most players in the NFL suffer injuries during the season, but most players are not as old as the Packers’ corps of walking wounded.  To be injured this early in the season may not portend great things to come for the Men Who Wear Cheese As Hats.

Put eight of these on the field and you'll have what's going on in Green Bay

Rumors are that the Packers may trade for Marshawn Lynch and his solid gold grill.  If the Bills are that desperate to part with their former top rusher, the Packers will be happy to take him off their hands.  BTW:  How do you know God has a problem with you?  You go from Cal-Berkley to Buffalo to Green Bay, Wisconsin.  What’s the matter God, you couldn’t open an expansion team in Yukon and send Lynch there?  You’re getting soft.

Trending: Even.

CHICAGO BEARS STATE OF THE PROGRAM:

Drunk.

No, Braylon Edwards has not been traded to the shores of Lake Michigan; however the Bears are giddy with the start of their season.  After having been run through the gauntlet by local and national media after the exhibition season, the Bears are telling everyone “I told you so,” after beating the Lions and Cowboys to start the year 2-0.

It didn’t look so hot about 5 minutes into the first quarter against the Cowboys.  Jay Cutler was running for his life on every snap, Chris Williams was out of the game, and it seemed like the Bears were in for a long afternoon of trying to keep Cutler out of the hospital.  And then it all changed.  Suddenly the Bears were making quick throws and keeping the Dallas pass rush off balance.  Suddenly the Bears defense was opportunistically taking advantage of Dallas mistakes; giving up yards but not points.

It's time to party like you just passed your GED!

Suddenly the much-maligned Bears are 2-0.

Like a buffet full of beef in front of a Bears fan, this isn’t liable to last long.  The Bears still have protection issues, still lack receivers, and are still giving up yards by the bushel (and should have lost to the Lions if it not for being bailed out by an absurd rule). 

That being said, the Bears look good.  This team resembles the Rams teams that Lovie Smith and Mike Martz ran to the Super Bowl back in the day.  They have an offense and defense that both feast on big plays.  And while they don’t have the talent on offense that those Rams teams had, they do have better players on defense.  If they can continue to get turnovers from their defense and reduce the turnovers from their offense, the Bears might be the surprise team of the year.

Trending: Up.

PLAYERS OF THE WEEK(S):

Jahvid Best, RB:

98 rushing yards, 170 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

Jay Cutler, QB:

68.8 completion percentage, 5 Tds, 1 Int, 10.1 YPP.

TEAM OF THE WEEK(S):

Chicago Bears.

NEXT WEEK:

It’s internecine warfare time as the Lions visit the Vikings and the Packers travel to Soldier Field.  As of today, the Pack are 3 point favorites over the Bears and the Lions are a whopping 10 point dogs at the Metrodome. 

The Packers and Bears like to think they have the best rivalry in the NFL, and they may be right.  This will be the measuring stick for the newborn Bears.  Can they protect Cutler against the Packers?  Can they protect their end zone against Aaron Rodgers?  I say no.  Packers 27, Bears 13.

 The Lions like to think they have a chance against the Vikings, and they might be right.  Ndamokong Suh has already declared that the Lions will not lose another home game this season.  Bless his young, naïve little heart.  Fortunately he won’t be proven wrong this weekend as the Lions are playing in Minnesota, a place where they have not won a game since Bill Clinton was President.  Look for the trend to continue.  Vikings 23, Lions 14.

How do you tell Bruce Pearl's not lying? He's not talking.

A couple of weeks ago, the NCAA revealed that it was investigating the University of Tennessee basketball program, specifically the actions of Tennessee’s head coach Bruce Pearl.  According to the NCAA, Pearl was wining and dining recruits at his house, making tons of phone calls he wasn’t supposed to be making, and then – to top it off – lying to the them about it when they asked him.  

That roar you heard was the entire state of Illinois laughing.  What’s that old phrase about chickens and roosts? 

Those of you outside of Illinois may not remember Deon Thomas.  Back in 1989 he was an excellent high school basketball player in Chicago and was the object of a recruiting fight between the University of Illinois and the University of Iowa.  Pearl, an assistant coach for Iowa at the time, was heavily involved in recruiting Thomas for the Hawkeyes.  So much so, that he thought it would be a good idea to 1) record a conversation he had with Thomas over the phone, and 2) send the NCAA a memo of that recording in which Pearl alleged that Thomas told him that Illinois offered him a new Chevy Blazer and cash in order to come to Illinois (What’s the matter Deon?  Couldn’t hold out for that brand new Miata?  Seriously, cruising with the top down while Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince play on your tape deck would be so rad). 

Based on Pearl’s allegations, the NCAA investigated Illinois. In that investigation, it never uncovered any evidence to corroborate Pearl’s story and never took any action against Thomas.  However, it did uncover other violations by Illinois and promptly penalized it by placing the basketball program on probation and taking away scholarships.   Thomas has denied ever making any statement to Pearl and has refused to reconcile with him to this day.  When he was asked a few years ago if he forgave Pearl, he reportedly said that it is “hard to forgive a snake.” 

Illinois went from the Final Four in 1989 to almost the bottom of the conference two years later.  Iowa won 20 games three years in a row, making the tournament each year. 

Pearl?  He moved on, but he didn’t move up. 

In moves seen by many as retribution for his supposed whistleblowing, Pearl was seemingly blacklisted from the major coaching ranks.  After leaving Iowa, he found work not in the middle ranks of the NCAA where a coach of his ability would normally land, but rather at a Division II school.  Following that he moved on to unfashionable Wisconsin-Milwaukee.  Winning everywhere he went, he was eventually noticed by the big time schools and finally offered a big time job at Tennessee.  There he built the program from also-ran to SEC contender, even challenging Kentucky for the conference’s top spot (Kentucky, possibly feeling itself outdone by Pearl’s cheating, hired John Calipari…well plyed Kentucky.  Your move Vols, is Jerry Tarkanian still available?).  

The press outside of Illinois and the coaching fraternity have always treated Pearl like some sort of Daniel Ellsberg of the NCAA coaching fraternity; putting his professional reputation on the line to show how others were cheating, sacrificing himself and his career to do what was right.  Others of us have always suspected that Pearl’s motivation to report Illinois (and, according to Thomas, make up a story about him and ruin his reputation) was more self-serving.  Pearl is a college basketball coach moving in a world where cheating is the order of the day.  He is no saint, he’s an opportunist who saw the chance to get a competitor and he took it. 

Now the press seems shocked (SHOCKED!) that Pearl would be investigated.  http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/15159/when-whistleblowers-go-bad-a-depressing-tale.  Ridiculous.   What’s even more ridiculous?  Pearl’s tearful apology.  The man actually has the gall to claim that “I learned that it’s not OK to tell the truth most of the time, but you’ve got to tell the truth all of the time.”  http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5575856.   What?  Did he fail first grade?  Who was his teacher, Richard Nixon?  Did he sit next to Bill Clinton?  He must be a Republican…when everything goes bad, blame the public schools! 

Tennessee has now docked Pearl’s pay, but it won’t be enough.  The NCAA expects people to cheat, and it expects them to get caught.  However, once caught, they expect you to come forward, admit it, and take your medicine.  If you lie to them – or lie and get pissy about it, like U$C – then they are going to hammer you.  Tennessee, prepare to get hammered. 

Those of us in Illinois are feeling a bit of Schadenfreude these days.  The man who – most likely – lied about Deon Thomas in order to get Illinois in trouble and was lauded for it, has now been revealed as the snake he actually is.  Smiles all around in Champaign.  Why don’t coaches turn each other in when everyone knows everyone else is cheating?  Because everyone knows everyone else is cheating.  If you want to tempt fate accusing someone ELSE of cheating when you’re doing it yourself, you’ve either got balls the size of mountains, or a brain the size of a molehill.  You’re only asking for trouble down the road.  (Speaking of molehill craniums, the school where the recruit who was photographed with Pearl now attends?  Ohio State.  Good luck down the road Thad Motta!) 

As for Pearl, he’ll be fine.  He might not last at Tennessee, but he’ll catch on somewhere.  Probably the NBA, where he can continue to pay his players and nobody will get mad about it.  Somewhere in Illinois, Deon Thomas just cracked a smile.  Somewhere in the universe, the karama gods just punched out for the day, their work here is done.

Minnesota v. New Orleans

His royal diva-ness and the purple headed warriors travel to the big easy to take on the super bowl champs.  The return to the scene of the crime of last year’s NFC championship game, a game the Vikings were in position to win until Favre decided to avoid running for the first down and instead chose to throw an interception.  Lost in the good feelings surrounding the Saints’ super bowl win was the fact that the Vikings dominated them in that game.  Only unforced errors prevented the Super Bowl from bring a 2 week infomercial about Chris Berman’s man crush on Brett Favre.

This week the Vikes return to face one of the best passing offenses in the league with a weakened secondary.  No Cedric Griffin.  No Chris Cook.  And, after losing Sidney Rice, the Vikings decided they simply could not live without Greg Camarillo so they traded their nickel back for him.  Why not wait until other teams had made their cuts?  Oh no.  One cannot wait to get a talent to play backup receiver like Camarillo…

The flip side is that even Greg Camarillo could get open against this Vikings secondary.  The Vikes are down to three cornerbacks on the roster.  Not a good thing against the Saints.  Even more than usual, the Vikings will rely on their pass rush to help their weak secondary.  It worked against the Saints last year, it remains to be seen if it can work this year.  Look for the Saints to spread the Vikings out and thrown on every down.  The Vikings can stop anybody who runs right at them, but they will struggle against teams that have time to throw.  One back, a tight end and a tackle on Allen, and the Saints will throw all over the Vikings.

On offense the Vikings return everyone but Chester Taylor from the offense that dominated the Saints last year.  The Saints love to blitz and attack, giving up a few big plays, but also creating turnovers.  That’s what happened last year as the Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre had good games, but turned the ball over and allowed the Saints easy paths to the end zone and ultimately cost the Vikes the game.  If the Saints choose to use the same tactics, the same results may occur.  Lots of Vikes turnovers as Favre eschews simple game management and decides to throw caution to the wind.  Or caution to the Camarillo as the case may be.

It won’t be enough.  Saints 34, Vikings 21.

Chicago v. Detroit

As a Lions fan, I’m hearing a lot of support for the Honolulu Blue and Silver this year.

As a Lions fan, I heard a lot of support for the Honolulu Blue and Silver in previous years.  And look what happened.

Look, the Lions are moving in the right direction, but I can’t in good conscience say that they’ve arrived anywhere other than two baby steps in front of where they were last year.  And in the time it took them to take those baby steps, Louis Delmas and DeAndre Levy got injured. 

Yes, they’ve added talented players in Vandenbosch, Suh, Scheffler; and taken on interesting projects in Smith, Jackson, and Houston…but really, they’re not ready for prime time yet.  Not with a second year QB behind an average offensive line and with a defense that might be the worst back seven in football.  And now two of their best defensive players (yes, there are more than two….but not much more than two.  Think three.) are hurt and doubtful the game.  Can a relatively untalented Lions squad win on the road against a division rival?

Well…it is the Bears.  Back in 2005-2006, the Bears defense was the best in football.  They played the cover-two better than anyone with Tommie Harris and Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs and Mike Brown leading them to the Super Bowl. 

As my hairline will tell you, too bad it’s not 2006 anymore.  Now they look old on defense and lost on offense.  Their offensive line looked a shambles in the preseason, their starting receivers are less than inspiring and their quarterback looks lost in his new offensive playbook.

And yet, they are playing the Lions.

The Bears new offense will pass, pass and pass.  The weakness of the Lions is their pass defense, especially if Delmas is hurt or operating at less than 100%.  If the new Blue and Silver sack attack can’t get to Cutler, he’ll find someone open.  And that someone is going to score.  Often.  Hell, even Devin Hester might figure out how to get open against the Lions cornerbacks.

The Lions might score too, but it won’t be enough.  Not this year.  Bears 28, Lions 24.

Green Bay v. Philadelphia

Back in 2008, Aaron Rogers emerged from sitting for two seasons behind Brett Favre to lead the Packers offense.  Two years later and he is considered one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in football and the Packers are a legitimate super bowl contender.

The Eagles can only hope that the same thing happens to them.  For the first time this century, they will not be led by Donovan McNabb.  Having traded their franchise quarterback to the Redskins in the offseason, the Eagles are placing all of their eggs in the basket of one Kevin Kolb.  Whether Kolb is ready will determine if the Eagles are contenders or also-rans.

His first game will be a baptism by fire.  The Packers love to rush the passer and they are very good at it.  With a virtual rookie under center, they will be licking their chops.  However, if the Eagles can protect him – and if his wits hold out – Kolb should have room to find his receivers.  Green Bay is without starting CB Al Harris and starting safety Atari Bigbee.  Charles Woodson’s old legs are back, but don’t be surprised if he’s on Jeremy Maclin rather than super-speedster DeSean Jackson.  Kolb will have lots of space to throw into, provided he isn’t on his back all afternoon.

 The Eagles are also rebuilding on defense.  As a team they love to blitz, and they have cornerbacks who make interceptions because of that blitz…but they also make mistakes.  While the o-line is considered the weakness of Green Bay’s offensive machine, the Eagles may not be the team to take advantage of it.  The beginning of a long year for the Eagles starts on Sunday.  Packers 38, Eagles 24.

For those of us around the age of 40, the Big Ten will forever be defined as three yards and a glorious cloud of dust.  Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler.  Third and long?  Run!  Rose Bowl?  Run!  Wait…running would be too risky…Punt!

For awhile there, it looked like things were changing.  This new fangled concept called the “pass” entered the lexicon of the league.  Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan State (for awhile), Indiana, and Minnesota adopted the spread offense.  Even Michigan and Ohio State began to experiment a little bit with 5 wides.  Passing became de rigeuer, even in the Big Ten.

But the more things change, the more they stay the same.  Michigan State has gone back to power football.  Penn State flirted a little bit with the spread, but now seems to have returned to the prototypical formation.  Michigan has gone strictly to a run-based zone read.  Illinois has as well.  Wisconsin and Iowa never fell for this new “forward passing” thing.  Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Northwestern?  Well….who really cares?  We’re not going to let them get in the way of our narrative of choice! 

Suffice to say that most of the Big Ten’s better teams are still all about power football.  You win with defense, a strong running game, field position, punting, field position, and if that doesn’t work…punting to get great field position.  Among the big boys, only Michigan is trying something new (and we don’t mean losing regularly) and is going to an offense and defense built on speed more than power.  We shall see if it works (and probably won’t find out until next season, if Rich Rodriguez is still around).  The other big teams (Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and (to a lesser extent) Michigan State) are all power teams, with only the Buckeyes able to beat you with power AND speed.

The conference this year is divided interestingly.  Ohio State and Wisconsin are the favorites.  Iowa is too for some people.  Michigan State is seen as a dark horse given their returning team and their easy schedule.  Penn State is seen as a contender by Penn State fans and a flawed team by the rest of us.  Michigan is still a year away.  Indiana, Minnesota, and Illinois are terrible.  Northwestern and Purdue are pesky.  Other than Michigan’s troubles, it’s a typical post Big Two Big Ten season. 

And now, the preview of the conference refuses to believe in life after the number 10:

THE CONTENDERS

THE Ohio State Buckeyes

Speaking of can’t count past ten, it’s Ohio State!  That’s not really fair, even Buckeye fans can count to five, which is the number of Big Ten titles the Bucks have won or shared in a row.  These are heady times for the men who put nuts on their heads when they do something good. 

And this year there will definitely be a lot of nuts being slapped on a lot of heads in Columbus.  The Buckeyes lost only two starters off last year’s offense and return Terrell Pryor at QB – their best weapon.  The problem for the Buckeyes continues to be will Tressel actually construct an offense that plays to Pryor’s strength (running the ball in the open field) as opposed to shackling his thoroughbred to an offense of student body left, student body right, draw play, draw play, fight fight fight!  Or, in fairness to Tressell, will Pryor be able to figure out any offense that requires him to think about something other than his affinity for Mike Vick (an apt comparison considering each of their struggles with the whole “thought process” thing).

On defense the Buckeyes have lost more players, but have reloaded with its usual array of top athletes.  They have an experienced secondary and the top defensive player in the conference in Cameron Heyward on the defensive line. 

Look for Pryor to make the leap this year and the Buckeyes to be the best team in the Big Ten yet again.  In fact, a repeat of last year’s Rose Bowl appearance seems likely.  If so, it will be six in a row for the Buckeyes (if they win a few more, they may actually teach some of their fans what numbers come after 8).  The other likely scenario is a trip to the national championship game (trailer parks everywhere, run!  RUN!).  While Michigan’s eventual rise from the ashes and Nebraska’s coming to the conference should change that, for the time being, it’s a Buckeye world in the Big Ten.  

Everyone else is just watching their nuts.

Wisconsin

When I was growing up, the Badgers were a joke and routinely beaten by the Big Two by 40+ points.  Hell, ILLINOIS used to beat up on Wisconsin.  I know, hard to believe.  But then along comes Barry Alvarez: a big, swarthy, chubby guy who rode into cheese country and started making a team in his own image.  They ran the ball left.  They ran it right.  Then they ran it down the middle.  Little by little, the Badgers got themselves an identity.  From there they started to recruit big, swarthy, and chubby offensive and defensive linemen to build around.  Once they obtained the final piece to the puzzle (a big, swarthy, chubby running back named Ron Dayne) they completed the transformation from also-ran to perennial chubby big ten favorite.

Once Saint Barry of Alvarez retired, the beat kept on going.  Unlike the rest of their Big Ten brethren, Wiscy never looked to the SEC with envy.  “Speed?  Who needs speed when I can run over your little ass with my big ass truck.  Let’s see you get around this, fast boy.”  If there is one team that keeps the conference’s plodding reputation alive, it’s the Badgers.

But who cares because it works.  It should definitely work this year as the Badgers return ten starters from a very good offense last season.  Big Ten offensive player of the year RB John Clay returns behind a fully intact offensive line, as does deep threat Nick Toon.  Quarterback Scott Tolzein isn’t flashy, but he is damn efficient, which is all the Badgers really expect from their quarterback when he’s not handing off to his running back. 

The defense has more serious losses, but still should be near the top of the conference.  They lose two of their best lineman, but welcome back most of the rest of a solid corps including linebacker Chris Borland.  Expect more of the same from the Badgers: stop the run, control the pass, be physical and be strong.

It all adds up to a typical Wisconsin run for the title: One of the Big Two is down (Michigan), they play the other of the Big Two at home (Ohio State), and a non-conference schedule softer than Barry Alvarez’s stomach.  Look for Wiscy to be the Buckeyes biggest test, possibly tying them for the title if they can beat them in Madison.

THE NEAR CONTENDERS

Iowa

Who doesn’t love the Hawkeyes?  Farmers.  Salt of the earth.  Their fans always travel well to the exotic locales of Champaign, West Lafayette and Columbus (“look mom! Black people!”).  A welcome addition to any mid-level Florida bowl game.  Hell, Hawkeye fans wouldn’t even look askance at a trip to El Freaking Paso and a side excursion to Juarez (“look mom!  A donkey show!”).

Iowa is predicted to avoid the donkey show circuit this year and find their way back to a top bowl (possibly even the Rose Bowl – “mom, is this where they film two and a half men?”)  Iowa finished the season strong last year.  They won the Orange Bowl.  They return a lot of starters on defense.  They have a solid coach who turns out solid teams year after year.  They are a lot of folks’ non-Buckeye favorite in the conference this year.

I’m not buying it.  Yes, Ricky Ticky Stanzi is back for another year of throwing interceptions for three quarters before leading his team to victory in the fourth.  Yes, Adrian Clayborn is back along with a couple other starters from a very good defensive line.  Yes, if there is one coach who can take an average offensive line and make them good it is Kirk Ferentz.  Yes, they have a powder-puff schedule that sees them get the Buckeyes, Nittany Lions, Spartans, and Badgers all at home.

I’m still not buying it.  Not only were the Hawkeyes very lucky last year, they lose three critical pieces from last year’s defense: Speivey at corner (who must have done something wrong as he was drafted to play in football hell: aka Detroit), Angerer and Edds at linebacker.  They also lost four starting offensive linemen, including NFL first round pick Bryan Bulaga (who must have done something right as he was not drafted to play in football hell: aka Detroit). 

Look for the Hawkeyes to disappoint a few people who expect a return to the BCS.  I see them losing two of the four games at home and dropping a road game to Michigan.  Given their outstanding travel contingent and stripes as a Big Ten draw, they’ll get another Florida bowl game out of it, but they’ll most likely be partying with Mickey Mouse in Orlando rather than Mickey Rourke in LA this time around.

Probably better for the donkeys that way.

Michigan State

WE ARE SPARTANS!

So went one of the cheesiest historical butcheries of all time: the movie 300.  There was an ounce of historical truth in it: the Spartans did stall the Persians for awhile, allowing the other Greeks to regroup.  There was also a mountain of made up chest puffing about how awesome the Spartans were in comparison to everyone else (those “boy loving Athenians,” (when in reality, it was the Spartans who loved little boys) those democracy hating effeminate 12 foot tall Persians, those ugly deformed dwarves who just weren’t tall enough to be Spartans). 

That sounds a lot like the Michigan State Spartans: a lot of chest puffing and myth making, constantly trying to show they’re just as good as the big boys in Columbus, Happy Valley and Ann Arbor.  Michigan State has always been the plucky little underachiever in the conference.  It’s a school with a lot of potential athletically.  It’s huge.  It cares about sports more than life itself.  It’s not that hard to get admitted (think Ohio State, only instead of “breathing,” you have to be able to breathe AND sign your name).

Yet, they never win.  Oh, they upset Michigan and Ohio State from time to time, but every time they do, they go out and blow the next one against Indiana or Purdue or Minnesota.  Such is the life of the team that never seems to have real confidence, only puffed up fake confidence built around a myth of itself as a contender rather than a pretender.

We shall see if this team is any different.  They certainly have the talent to beat most of the conference and to give Ohio State and Wisconsin fits (if they played Ohio State…more on that later).  They return a solid base on both offense and defense.  The offense is led by QB Kirk Cousins and a pair of good running backs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker.  While Sparty passed more than usual last year, look for this year’s team to return to the conservative power running game that their coach likes to operate (low risk/low reward).  Their defense is stout up front and boasts the conference’s second best defender in Greg Jones, a pre-season All American linebacker.  The Spartans will be tough against the run, but their secondary looks to be below average yet again.  Without some pass rush, Sparty could get shredded by any effective passing teams. 

And what about that schedule?  Sparty skips Ohio State and gets Wisconsin at home.  But they do have to travel to Michigan, Iowa and Penn State.  They have enough talent to beat all three of those teams, but the question in East Lansing is usually about attitude, not talent.  Too many times they pin their season on beating rival Michigan, and when the fail or succeed, the rest of the season falls apart.  They’re undisciplined.  They crack under pressure.  They just quite aren’t ready for prime time.

Not that they will admit it.  After all, THEY ARE SPARTANS!

Of course…the Spartans lost Thermopylae, but nevermind that, we have a myth to sustain.

THE PRETENDERS

Penn State

Plain old Penn State.  Black shoes.  White helmets.  Blue uniforms.  Never changed.  Never will.  Linebacker U.  Defense.  Running game.  Solid.  Joe Pa.

Ah Joe Pa.  The constant in college football.  Now that Bobby Bowden has paid his last recruit and rode off into the wilderness, Joe Pa remains the last man standing…or running to the bathroom as the case may be.  All of his peers have retired or died.  The young whippersnappers like Jim Tressel are stealing his thunder.  Yet he perseveres.  Same pants that are too small.  Same shoes.  Same glasses.

But it keeps working.  Last year Penn State had another quality season, being only a couple years removed from almost winning every game.  This year?  Well, they’re starting a true freshman quarterback for the first time in Paterno’s long career (Rob Bolden).  But they welcome back a seasoned offensive line and a quality running back in Evan Royster and some quality receivers.  The strength will be that line, which will have to block for a QB who is only months removed from playing high school in Michigan.

The defense was hit harder by graduation.  All world Jared Odrick is off to the NFL.  So is the entire starting linebacker crew.  While Penn State is never wanting for talent at those positions, such losses of key players is bound to have an effect on this season.  The schedule is a bit tougher than usual for the boys from Happy Valley as they travel to Alabama to relive Sugar Bowls past, and then must go to Iowa and Columbus for their two biggest games (no Wisconsin for them…probably for the better considering Joe Pa’s troubles with dairy products).

But don’t fret Penn State fans, Joe Pa can always get cheese in Pennsylvania.  Unfortunately, that’s probably where all their wins are going to come from too.  Look for Penn State to drop road tilts to the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes, along with a possible surprise loss to Michigan and/or Michigan State.  Teams with freshmen quarterbacks usually don’t run roughshod over the Big Ten.  Penn State will be one of those teams as it doesn’t have the talent around Bolden to go through the tough Big Ten.

Michigan

God must hate Rich Rodriguez.  He’s lucky enough to get out of West Virginia with all his teeth intact, and moves his way to Ann Arbor to take over the winningest program in college football history.  A school that hadn’t had a losing season since the 1960s.  A school with the longest bowl streak of any school in the country.  A school that had never even talked to the NCAA, much less been on probation.

Check.  Check.  Check.  In two years Rodriguez ruined all of those traditions.  3 wins in year one, then 5 in year two.  No bowl games.  And then getting slapped by the NCAA for practicing too much.  He must have pissed someone off mighty good.  Either that or God has a soft spot for West Virginia considering how much he likes to fuck with them (“What should I do today Mary?  Let’s see, hasn’t been a coal mining disaster in awhile…”).

That and he arrived at the end of Lloyd Carr’s reign, the last couple years of which Lloyd just didn’t have his heart in it.  After Bo died in 2006, Lloyd wanted to retire but was talked out of it.  The next couple of recruiting classes weren’t so hot.  He went out losing 5 in a row to the Buckeyes (although whooping Tim Tebow in his last bowl game was pretty nice…maybe that’s why God is mad at Michigan?). 

Rodriguez inherited a team that didn’t like him and wasn’t used to his style of play or style of coaching.  He swore.  Repeatedly!  He got mad when you missed blocks!  He didn’t bring us ice cream like grandpa Lloyd!  What.  The.  Fuck.

They transferred in droves.  They bad mouthed the new guy.  Those who stayed didn’t fit the scheme.  Rodriguez wanted fast and shifty, he was given big and slow.  He struggled.  Mightily.

But all that is starting to change.  After two and half (he took over Carr’s last class) classes, you can see his stamp on the team, especially on offense.  Quarterback Denard Robinson is a Big Ten hurdles champion with Olympic speed.  Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith are fast running backs with shifty moves.  They have a bevy of smurfs playing wide out.  And, most importantly, they have an athletic offensive line that has experience in the system.  Michigan’s offense is going to run all over people this year. 

The defense?  Well…they’re going to get run all over too.  The only good thing from the last two seasons (Brandon graham) has graduated.  The linebackers are experienced, but not very good.  The defensive line is experienced, but outside of Mike Martin isn’t that great.  The secondary is the worst in the conference (God really hates Michigan’s secondary as he has a habit of injuring all of them…maybe they picked off Tebow one too many times?  If so, there are going to be a LOT of injuries in the NFL real soon…hey o!).  And Michigan has no depth.  They have the least amount of defensive scholarship players in the conference and will be starting at least (if they’re lucky) one walk-on every game.  Get ready for some shootouts in Ann Arbor.

While most predict doom for Rodriguez and his plucky bunch, not I.  I think this team can win 7 or 8 games.  Only Ohio State and Wisconsin appear to be sure fire losses.  Iowa can be had.  Penn State is overrated.  Michigan State’s collar always gets tight against its more respected brother to the south.  If Michigan can pick off two of those games, they’ll be bowling this winter. 

And next season?  Well, by then maybe God will have forgotten all about that whole beating Tim Tebow thing…

Northwestern

Who?  Is this the “terrible” category?  (No, that will have the word “Illinois” at the top of it)  What is Northwestern doing in the same place as Michigan and Penn State?  Are the purple headed warriors about to penetrate the top of the Big Ten again?  Can they finally break their Rose Bowl cherry and win in Pasadena?  Will they lick the competition….ok, that’s enough.

Northwestern isn’t bad.  That’s probably the nicest thing you can say about the wildcats.  The one school in the big ten that takes its academics seriously from its athletes (yeah, sorry Michigan, that ain’t you…but at least you can spell academics!  That puts you one up on the Buckeyes!) has assembled an interesting cast of characters.  At quarterback they welcome redshirt junior Dan Persa.  He’s got some big shoes to fill in departing Mike Kafka, but maybe Persa will undergo a metamorphosis and turn into Kafka overnight?  Alright, that was really strained but his last name is Kafka.  Come on.

Even if he doesn’t become the crafty little waterbug of a QB Kafka was (you see what I did there?  Some of you are English majors…right?), Persa should be a decent replacement.  The rest of the offense?  Likely to get squashed like bugs.  (last one, I promise).

The defense?  Let’s just say that they’re losing two NFL draft picks.  NORTHWESTERN!  They’re replacing them with players who aren’t likely to be NFL draft picks.  Northwestern…  However, they have a very good coach in Pat Fitzgerald and don’t have to face Ohio State or Michigan.  They do have some talent on defense, and coupled with their offensive style that should score some points, they should be able to squeak out a few wins in conference.  Next thing you know, they might be bugging the Motor City Bowl for a shot at the MAC champ.  Alright, so I lied…but his name is Kafka and he’s not going to be there anymore!

If you don’t get the Kafka jokes, don’t worry, they aren’t funny.

Purdue

Danny Hope has a bitchin’ mustache, a hatred for Rich Rodriguez, and a crappy football team. 

Well, that’s not really true.  I’d say it’s a cool mustache, but not as bitchin as his predecessor’s Wilfred Brimley style stache.  You’ve got a high standard to live up to, Coach Hope.  Get busy growin’ or get busy dyin’.

The team will certainly get busy dyin’.  Purdue is bringing in much-hyped QB Robert Marve (much hyped at Purdue is synonymous with any recruit that has more than 2 or 3 stars…Marve had 4, thus making him akin to Jesus at West Lafayette) to lead the offense.  However, their starting running back is out for most of the season with a torn ACL, and they’re replacing half their offensive line from last year (which wasn’t that good last year…).  Look for some trying times on offense.

Speaking of trying, it’s Purdue’s defense.  They’ll “try” to hold opponents under 30 points.  And they will fail a lot.  Especially against teams that can pass as they are breaking in an entirely new secondary.  It’s not all bad in West Lafayette (although, have you been there?  It’s not really all that good unless you really really really love Chiles), they have a promising pair of defensive ends and bring back all their linebackers from last year.  They should be below average…but not that below average.

All that might be progress for Purdue’s defense.  The entire season, and maybe Hope’s job, depends upon the progress of Marve.  If he can go from “local carpenter Jesus that no one knows but hey he does a few miracles” to “big time conference sermon on the mount Jesus that throws out the money changers and tells the Romans where they can stick their fancy swords,” Purdue might be partying in Detroit on Christmas.  For those of us who are monitoring Hope’s mustache’s growth and progress, we can only hope.

The Rest

Minnesota

Indiana

Illinois

The only thing interesting about this bunch will be to see who gets fired first: Tim Brewster in Minnesota or Ron Zook in Illinois.  Both of them came in with great expectations.  They were billed as top recruiters who promised to lock down their state’s top talent and bring their programs back to the promised land.  (Yes, Virginia, Illinois and Minnesota used to be good at football.  No really, you can look it up.  Check under “old” and cross-reference that with “ass” and you’ll find pictures of Red Grange, Dick Butkus, and Bronko Nagurski.) 

It hasn’t quite worked out that way.  Zook was coach of the year two years ago after leading the Illini to the Rose Bowl (because Ohio State won its annual trip to get it’s ass kicked by the SEC in the national championship game).  Everything fell apart last season.  This year they lose their best players in Regis Benn and Juice Williams, and replace them with….not as good as Regis Benn and Juice Williams.  Brewster came in like a house on fire, talking tough and led the Gophers to two straight trips to the prestigious Insight.com Bowl.  Two straight losses to football powers Kansas and Iowa State later and the Gophers are still fighting to get out of the basement and return to the glory years of mediocrity.  Don’t look for it this year.

As for Indiana, basketball season starts in another month.  See you then.

*             *             *

 Prediction:

 Ohio State           8-0

Wisconsin            7-1

Michigan State  5-3

Iowa                      5-3

Penn State          4-4

Michigan              4-4

Northwestern   3-5

Purdue                 3-5

Indiana                 2-6         

Illinois                   1-7         

Minnesota          0-8

In honor of Rick’s best meltdown as Celtics coach where he lamented his woe at missing out on tim Duncan by telling disgruntled Celtics fans (the best kind of Celtics fans) that “Larry Bird is not walking through that door,” so they better get used to Ron Mercer!  Then he promptly traded away Chauncey Billups.  Kudos Rick!  Celtic haters like myself have never been happier with your performance! 

In case you forgot, in between teaching Billy Donovan and John Calipari how to cheat like men, Rick ventured to the NBA and figured out that he wasn’t the second coming of basketball Jesus.  He wasn’t even the second coming of basketball Jose.  So, after striking out with the big boys, he returned to college where he knew he could cheat better than the next guy.  Hello Louisville!  Good show Rick!  Good show indeed.

On to the football.

The Green Bay Packers or “Herb Adderley is not walking through that door people!”

Green Bay entered the year as the favorites to be crowned in the NFC North.  They’ve done little so far to lose that distinction, but the pre-season has shown that some of the cracks from last year have yet to be fixed.

This just in: Charles Woodson and Al Harris are still old.  The Packers have done nothing to reverse the aging process of arguably their two most important defensive players.  But they’re trying by not playing Woodson much in the preseason and praying that Harris comes back from his knee injuries in time to start the season.  In their place stand Pat Lee and Brandon Underwood.  In fact, they’re still standing there while receivers from the Cardinals and Seahawks run past them.

Yes, getting lit up by Derek Anderson and Matt Hasselback does not bode well for Green Bay’s season.  In their defense, they were without their best pass rushers and linebackers for a lot of those games.  Unfortunately for Green Bay, their pass rush IS their best pass defense.

On a more positive note, the offense has looked mah-velous.  Aaron Rodgers may just be the best quarterback statistically in the league next year.  Jermichael Finley still looks amazing at tight end (and with a name like Jermichael, how could he not?  “Jermichael: when Michael simply isn’t enough of a descriptor for your child”).  The offense is still humming.  The only hiccup might be the injury to rookie Bryan Bulaga, the first rounder from Iowa slated to start at guard, but the probable back-up at both tackle positions.

The Pack still look formidable, even with the defensive issues.

The Minnesota Vikings or “Brett Favre is not walking through that door people…oh wait there he is.”

Of all the teams in the NFC North, the Vikings have had the most drama so far in the preseason.  That should not come as a surprise to anyone considering they currently employ the league’s biggest drama queen at quarterback.

Yes, that Tavaris Jackson is SO full of himself…

Just kidding, Tavaris.  I speak of the be-wranglered one himself: Brett Favre.  The annual “will he or won’t he” lasted for only a few weeks this summer, as Favre decided he “owed it to his teammates” to give them a quick decision.  How noble of him. 

Of course, he also decided that the Vikings “owed it to Brett Favre” to give him a raise.  Once they did, he came to camp.

Once he got there, he might not have liked what he saw.  Soon after showing up, his number two receiver from last year Percy Harvin went down with “migraines.”  The Vikes have sent Harvin to the Mayo Clinic to have his head examined.  Never a promising development.  Harvin looks to be day-to-day for most of the season.  About a week after that, his number one receiver Sidney Rice was ruled out for at least half the year following surgery. 

Visanthe Shiancoe can expect to see a LOT of double-teams this year.

In response to the decimation of their receiving corps, the Vikes went out and signed Javon Walker.  This must have pleased Favre to no end considering he was instrumental in running Walker out of Green Bay a few years ago.  Walker insists he’s a changed man from his earlier days when he used to spend his time drinking rather than running routes after practice.  We shall see.

All of this begs the question:  Will the Vikings go after Vincent Jackson?  The Chargers’ deep threat is threatening to hold out for the entire season unless he gets “Brandon Marshall Money.”  Re: too much money for Vincent Jackson.  The Vikings, with their championship window closing fast, may just decide to give it to him.

The answer to that question has now come back: no.  The Vikings didn’t want to throw caution to the wind and trade for the home run hitter in Jackson, instead they threw a mild sense of adventure to the breeze and traded for reliable Greg Camarillo.  Another possession receiver.  Bernard Berrien is now your home run threat Vikings fans.  You better hope Favre has one more magical year left in those jeans.

But it’s not all bad in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.  EJ Henderson has returned after blowing out his knee and has looked pretty good at middle linebacker.  That’s as close to a miraculous recovery as you can imagine from such a debilitating injury.  Now if he can only go all “Mr. Miyagi” on Percy Harvin’s head the Vikings might still be in the running for the division.

The Chicago Bears or “Dick Butkus is not hobbling through that door in that walker he has to use because the Bears ‘doctors’ shot him so full of cortisone they could have run him over with a truck and he wouldn’t feel it people!”

The Bears’ offensive line has been dominated in two straight games.  The mighty pass rush of the Oakland Raiders crushed Jay Cutler last week.  Third year left tackle Chris Williams was especially bad, which bodes especially ill for Jay Cutler’s insurers.  If Williams is this bad in the regular season, the entire offense will grind to a halt.

Or it could return the Bears to yester-year and just grind the ball, because Matt Forte looks to be back.  After a great rookie season, Forte spent much of last year tip-toeing around any sort of contact and then falling down.  Usually within 3 yards of where he started.  This year he has burst and speed, as evidenced by a huge touchdown run against Oakland.  The return of Forte bodes well for the Bears.  Marshall Faulk lite, anyone?

The defense hasn’t looked much better than the offensive line, but Julius Peppers has been as advertised.  In other words, when he wants to play – like the last game after getting poked in the eye and being pissed about it – he is almost unblockable with one man.  The rest of the time I could block him because he just doesn’t try very hard.  In other disconcerting news, Brian Urlacher went out with a calf strain in the first series of the first game.  Never a good sign when your best defensive player whose game is built on speed suddenly starts getting leg injuries.  Fellow linebacker Nick Roach is also hurt. 

It’s probably better not to speak of the safety play.  What does one have to do to tell Chris Harris not to let the last man get behind him?  It doesn’t seem that tough, but it must be.

In other news, the Bears signed former Michigan starter Todd Collins to be Cutler’s back up as Chicago’s obsession with Michigan quarterbacks continues.  From Harbaugh to Griese to Collins.  Too bad they missed out on that Brady kid.  Word is that Scott Driesbach is still available.  Drew Henson is still around spending all that money George Steinbrenner gave him to swing and miss at curveballs.

The Detroit Lions or “Barry Sanders is not running through that door…then stutter stepping to the left, running back across the field, reversing direction and then coming back through the door for eighty yards people!”

The Lions have looked great so far.  They’ve beaten a recent super bowl champ and an AFC contender on the road.  Their young talent is finally clicking and they’re buying into what the coach is selling.  This looks like the year they turn it around…

Oh wait, that was 2008 when they went 4-0 in preseason and then proceeded to lose all 16 games.

In other words, don’t get your hopes up too quick Lions’ fans.  All twelve of you should show a little patience and perspective before jumping on that Stafford for MVP bandwagon.

The good news is that the Lions HAVE looked better.  Stafford looked good throwing the ball downfield – even if he still locked in on his receiver too much.  The intermediate stuff he’s still working on.  He’s had pretty good protection as well.  The offensive line hasn’t been overwhelmed, although it is a little worrying to see ancient Jon Jansen beating out former first round pick Gosder Cherilus.  If Cherilus can’t beat out Jansen, he’ll join the rest of Matt Millen’s draft picks not named Calvin Johnson on the NFL scrap heap.

The defensive line has been as advertised.  Ndamokung Suh has been double teamed on almost every play.  Not sure if that says something about Suh, or about the rest of the Lions’ line.  Probably a bit of both.  Either way, the line has put consistent pressure on the opposing team’s quarterback.  If the Lions defensive backs would learn how to turn around and look for the ball, all that pressure might result in a turnover or two instead of the typical Lions pass interference call.

Lest we think we’ve returned to the heady days of Doug English and Bubba Baker, remember that the Steelers offensive line is very bad and they were playing without Ben Roethlisberger.  Sir Byron of Leftwich is a very easy target to hit.  Likewise, the Broncos are rebuilding and their offensive line was mostly backups against the Lions’ starters.  So let’s all calm down a bit before we anoint Kyle Vandenbosch the comeback player of the year.  As an aside, the Broncos are going to be terrible this year.  Nice job mini-Belichek!

In other news, Louis Delmas’ lingering groin injury is worrisome.  As is the play of starter-to-be Zack Follett at linebacker.  The last we saw of Zack, he was getting stiff armed to the ground by a running back on his way to a touchdown.  You know, there’s a reason why guys fall to the seventh round, and it’s not because they’re all diamonds in the rough.  Marques Colston’s come along every ten years, not every ten picks.  The Lions have big problems at linebacker. 

 But that’s a problem for another day.  This Lions team is 1-1 in the preseason and looking to finish strong!  Heck, the last time they did that they finished…..2-14.  In fact, the Lions have won 8 of their last 10 preseason games (but only 2 of their last 30 regular season games).  Remember that the next time you think pre-season games mean anything…

But it wasn’t always that way. 

The Lions moved to Detroit in 1934.  The next year they won the championship.  Fifteen years later they traded for Bobby Layne and won three more titles in six years.  The big armed, hard drinking, big time swaggering Texan led the Lions at QB for most of the decade.  The only thing he was known more for than his late fourth quarter comebacks was the fact that he was hung-over during most of them.  Think Brett Favre.  Only drunk.  In the huddle.

The last of those championships came in 1957 when Layne was injured late in the season by a drity hit from Chicago Bear Doug Atkins.  His replacement, Tobin Rote, led the Lions to what was, at the time, the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history over the San Francisco 49ers (24 unanswered second half points) and then a complete destruction of Jim Brown and Cleveland in the championship game 59-14.

The next year the Lions traded Bobby Layne.  As he walked out the door, he turned back and supposedly stated something to the effect of “you’ll never win anything ever again.”  It was likely hard to hear him because he was probably pretty wasted.

But it gets better.

November 23, 1963 is not a red letter day in American history.  On that day, on a sunny street in the middle of Dallas, John F. Kennedy was assassinated and American innocence was lost.  Headlines across the country told the tale of the young President fighting for his life after being brutally gunned down by an assassin’s bullet; only to die shortly thereafter.  Struck down in his prime.

The Detroit newspapers were no different.  Splashed in ink across the front of Detroit’s dailies was the headline of the death of a young President.  The entire front flap of the paper was devoted to coverage of the event.  Justifiably so.  Meanwhile, if one scrolled down to the bottom right hand corner looking for other stories, in much smaller print, was the tale of how a local scion of the City’s most famous family – William Clay Ford – had just finalized the purchase of the Detroit Lions. 

In 1962 the Lions finished just behind Vince Lombardi’s Green Bay Packers.  In fact, the Lions famously battered golden boy Bart Starr for 10 sacks on Thanksgiving, but couldn’t seal the deal and finished 10-3, two games out of first. 

The next year, after Ford bought the team, they finished 5-8-1.  They wouldn’t make the playoffs again until 1970, when they lost 5-0 to Dallas.  Then the comedy really began.  Ford hired Daryl Rogers to coach.  When it became evident that he wasn’t any good, Rogers famously asked, “what does a guy have to do to get fired around here?”  Ford re-hired him.  In 1995 the Lions finished 10-6 and went into the playoffs as a prohibitive favorite over Philadelphia.  By the middle of the third quarter, they were losing 51-7.  Ford responded by giving head coach Wayne Fontes a contract extension.  In 2000 Bobby Ross quit in the middle of the season.  Ford responded by hiring Matt Millen.  The Lions went from 9-7 to 2-14 in Millen’s first season, then 3-13, then 5-11, then 6-10, then 5-11.  Instead of seeing that Millen couldn’t do the job, Ford did what he usually did when faced with utter incompetence: he gave him a contract extension.

Millen finally left in 2008.  His legacy?  The 2008 Lions were the only team in the modern era to not win a single game in a season.  Last year they improved by leaps and bounds.  They won two.

Just one more.

It wasn’t often that the Lions got one right.  But in 1989 they had the third pick in the draft and a little scatback from the plains of Oklahoma fell right into their laps.  Even the Lions couldn’t mess this one up.  They selected Barry David Sanders and watched him rush for over 1,000 yards each year for the next decade.  He broke 2,000 yards in one year (in 14 games if you consider he only had 50 yards in his first two and then 2000 in his next 14).  He averaged over 5 yards a carry for his whole career.  He was the best running back in football.  Hell, he might have been the best running back in the history of football.

And then he quit.  One day he faxed in his resignation letter and went on vacation.  When reporters found him in a London airport, he said he didn’t think it would be that big of a deal.  When they asked him why, he just shrugged and said he didn’t want to play football anymore.  In fact, he paid back nearly $5 million of his signing bonus to the Lions so he could quit.

That’s right.  The best player the Lions have ever had paid them $5 million just so he could quit. 

That’s just how bad people want to get away from this team.  It’s hard to blame them.

*             *             *

Two years ago the Lions began to rebuild (again).  They promoted Martin Mayhew to general manager, and found Jim Scwartz to be head coach.  In his first season in charge, Schwartz’s Lions went 2-14.  Normally, such a record would be a disaster, in Detroit, that was a two game improvement over the previous season.

In addition to a new coach, the Lions also had a new starting quarterback.  Georgia’s Matt Stafford was the first pick in the 2009 NFL draft and started ten games in his rookie season with decidedly mixed results.  “Mixed” might be a little too kind to Stafford, the results were horrible.  However, rookie quarterbacks on teams like the Lions don’t usually have results other than “horrible.”  What Stafford has is an arm like a cannon, a tall physical physique, and the intelligence needed to play the position.  What he needs to work on is his decision making – too many plays ended with Stafford lobbing the ball in Calvin Johnson’s general direction – and accuracy.  Even when Stafford was at Georgia, too many plays ended with the strong armed kid launching the ball like a rocket at a receiver six yards downfield.  If Stafford can develop the touch to match his confidence, he’ll be ok.  If not, the Lions will once again be rebuilding from scratch in another three years.

The rest of the offense is packed with talented skill position players.  The Lions spent a first round pick on college speedster running back Jahvid Best to split time with disappointing Kevin Smith.  Aaron Brown may stick as a third down back.  At receiver, all-world talent Calvin Johnson will line up opposite to veteran Nate Burleson.  Johnson, the former #2 pick in the draft, is a perfect combination of size and speed.  However, his results have not always matched his talent.  He has trouble getting off the line against press coverage and trouble getting open on occasion.  Those are things that can improve with experience.  If they do, the Lions will have the best receiver in the NFL.  They already have a talented tight end combination.  Brandon Pettigrew is a former #1 pick with good hands and great blocking ability.  Tony Scheffler is a poor man’s Dallas Clark. 

The problem isn’t the skill position talent, it’s the offensive line.  On its best day, the Lions offensive line is average.  And Sunday isn’t often their best day.  Left tackle Jeff Backus and center Dominic Raiola have been starting for most of the decade and they’re not bad players.  Backus is a good run blocker, but he has a lot of trouble with speed rushers.  Raiola is competitive, tough, and feisty, but he’s undersized for the position and will struggle against bigger tackles. 

The rest of the line was decidedly below average last season.  To address part of the problem, the Lions acquired solid guard Rob Sims from Seattle, who should be an upgrade over last season’s revolving door of poor.  The right side of the line is still a question mark.  Serviceable Stephen Peterman is paired with physically talented but mistake prone Gosder Cherilus at right tackle.  An improvement will be necessary to avoid sending Matt Stafford to the hospital every other week.

As middling as the Lions offensive line was last season, they were world beaters compared to the defense.  For two years in a row, the Lions have had a defense that was statistically one of the worst defenses of all time.  Are they getting better?  Sure, how could they get any worse?

The defensive line is completely revamped this year.  First, the Lions traded for former Packer defensive tackle Corey Williams with the hope that returning him to a 4-3 defense will rekindle the time he was productive in Green Bay (two years ago).  He’ll play next to second year man-mountain Sammie Lee Hill, who has the potential to be a very good run stopper.  Then they signed Schwartz favorite Kyle VandenBosch from Tennessee to play right end.  Vandenbosch should be an upgrade on what the Lions had last year, but his production has significantly declined the last two seasons and he may be over-the-hill.  The other pass rushing spot will be manned by a combination of journeyman Jason Hunter and soon-to-be journeyman Cliff Avril.

But the piece de resistance to the rebuilding project up front is Ndamukong Suh.  The tackle from Nebraska was widely considered to be the most talented player in this year’s draft and should be an instant upgrade over anything the Lions have had inside since…Alex Karras?  Even though rookie defensive tackles rarely make a huge impact their first year, there is enough smoke to believe the fire about Suh’s ability to make an instant impact.

The less said about the rest of the defense the better.  The linebacking corps consists of an ancient Julian Petersen (who is better playing end at this point), second year man DeAndre Levy, and a collection of seventh round hopefuls and castoffs.  Levy has potential to be good, last year he was either very good or very horrid, combining a rare ability to make great plays and miss easy ones.  More consistency could make him into the solid player in the middle the Lions so desperately need.

The secondary may be even worse.  The two presumptive starters at corner are Chris Houston, a washout from Atlanta, and Jonathan Wade, a washout from St. Louis (hint: St. Louis’ defense may be as bad as Detroit’s, which doesn’t say much for Wade…).  Houston has talent, but has never developed any technique to go with it.  If Wade has any talent, he’s yet to let us know.  Rookie Amari Spivey and aging vet Dre Bly make up the rest of the underwhelming crew.  The safety position is less of a worry.  Louis Delmas had a very good rookie campaign as a big hitting in-the-box safety, tearing off the heads of wide receivers daring to go over the middle.  But he can be had in coverage as he falls for fakes and goes for the big hits when he should be worrying about his coverage responsibilities.  For some reason, the Lions are moving him to centerfield, where his weaknesses in coverage are likely to be more exposed.  Why are they doing this?  Because they have no one else on the roster who is worthy of an NFL starting position.  CC Brown, Marquand Manuel, and Ko Simpson are fringe starters at best, and special teams players at worst. 

It all boils down to a defense that is getting better up front, but is still so bad at the back that they are a ways from being competitive.  It’s going to be a long road back to 1957 for the Lions.  They’re making the first steps to getting there, but they’re still at least two solid drafts from being a serious playoff contender.

*             *             *

Schedule:

1              At Chicago

2              Philadelphia

3              At Minnesota

4              At Green Bay

5              St. Louis

6              At New York Giants

7              Bye

8              Washington

9              New York Jets

10           At Buffalo

11           At Dallas

12           New England

13           Chicago

14           Green Bay

15           At Tampa Bay

16           At Miami

17           Minnesota

Prediction:  The Lions offense will score points, but not as many as they need.  If you played the 1999 Rams on Madden on the easiest level against your 80 year old grandmother you wouldn’t score as many points as this Lions team will need.  5-11.

All of that changed in 1998.  That year the Vikings had one of the most statistically dominant teams of all-time.  Led by hall of fame defensive tackle John Randall, resurgent pro-bowl quarterback Randall Cunningham, and some guy at receiver named Moss, the Vikings romped through the league at a 15-1 record.  They put up 41 points in the first playoff game, and hosted the underdog Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship game as overwhelming favorites.

And they lost when their kicker Gary Anderson – who had not missed a kick all season – missed a field goal.  The Falcons would go on to get blown out in the Super Bowl, the Vikings would not come close to the Super Bowl again.

Until last season.  In the offseason, some old quarterback named Favre joined the Vikings and, at the age of 40, proved the skeptics (including this skeptic) wrong by having one of the best seasons of his career.  Behind an aging but still competent offensive line, Favre winged passes to rookie Percy Harvin, heretofore underachiever Sidney Rice, and veteran speedster Bernard Berrian.  All of this was supplemented by one of the best running back tandems in the league in superstar Adrian Peterson and veteran third down back Chester Taylor.  Likewise, the defense was bolstered by sack machine Jared Allen and the most dominating pair of defensive tackles in the league in Pat and Kevin Williams (the star caps twins!). 

The Vikings edged out the Packers for the division title and destroyed the Cowboys in the division playoff game 34-3.  Once again, they sat on the verge of a trip to the Super Bowl.  Once again, Brett Favre was working his old magic.  The gunslinger was back, whipping passes with reckless abandon and leading his offense down the field.  America’s most popular athlete was capping his hall of fame career with a season of a lifetime (coincidentally, the quarterback who’s career most parallels Favre’s is former Viking Fran Tarkenton).  The only thing that stood between the Vikings and their fifth Super Bowl trip was the plucky New Orleans Saints.

While the Saints were formidable and playing at home, the Vikings were favored.  People were awed by Favre, and the Vikings simply had more name talent on both sides of the ball.  Once the game started, it was obvious that those expectations were justified.  They almost doubled the Saints in yards gained and had a 31-15 edge in first downs.  Favre threw for over 300 yards, Petersen rushed for over 100, but…

But there’s always a “but” with the Vikings.  They turned the ball over 5 times, the last of which came with the team driving for a potential game winning field goal when Favre inexplicably rolled out and threw back across his body toward the middle of the field and was intercepted.  A faux pas that every quarterback from Pop Warner to High School to Division III college ball is routinely lectured not to make.  The Vikings drive was stopped.  The Saints got the ball to start the overtime and went down to score and win.

The patron saint of the 2009 Vikings had committed the ultimate quarterback sin, and it cost the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl.

This year the Vikings are picked by many to return to the glory of 2009.  That is, if Favre decides to return.  Once again, the “diva in dungarees” has decided to leak to the press that he might retire.  Again.  Yet, shortly after that announcement, he leaked to the press that he might come back.  Again.  If he gets more money.  Again.  The smart money is that he will return for a very large raise.  Again.  However, he might not like what he sees when he gets back.  If he doesn’t come back, the Vikings certainly won’t like what they see, as his backup is the very poor Tavaris Jackson.

Favre’s heroics last season were memorable, but they papered over a lot of cracks in the rest of the team; specifically in the offensive line.  While Favre doesn’t seem to age (still making great throws, still making rookie mistakes), his buddies in the trenches do.  Two years ago, the Vikings had the best left side of the line in recent history.  Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson, and Matt Birk led a line that dominated the opposition.  Then Birk left in the offseason, McKinnie got old, and Hutchinson’s play declined from “the best left guard in the history of football” to “really good.”  It all added up to the Vikings doing well despite their offensive line, not because of it.  And they’re another year older this year.

So is Adrian Peterson, who has seen his yards per carry decrease in each of his three seasons despite a steadily increasing workload.  This year he is without all-world backup (but suspect starter, sorry Bears’ fans) Chester Taylor, so he is likely to see more carries.  His new aide-de-camp is rookie Toby Gerhardt, a back from Stanford who doesn’t have much wiggle, but does have power if he gets up a head of steam.  Unfortunately for Toby, there are no Oregon State’s in the NFL (except maybe Detroit, which might be being a little unkind to Oregon State…).

The receivers are still solid, but there is a lingering feeling that they were made solid by Favre, and if he doesn’t come back or if he slows down a bit, their production will lag.  To add to those worries, rookie wunderkind Percy Harvin is suffering from migraines in training camp and may not be healthy all year.

The defense has similar issues.  While Jared Allen still lays claim to being one of the best pass rushing ends in football, one has to wonder when Pat Williams will start to decline.  Either way, this is likely to be his last season in the middle.  But even with a decline there, the Vikings have Allen and Ray Edwards as two great pass rushing threats which make the defense go.  The linebackers will be relying upon EJ Henderson to get healthy from a horrific knee injury, and to see further improvement from underrated Chad Greenway and the platoon of Ben Leber (run defense) and Jasper Brinkley (pass defense).  Henderson’s health is key.

The secondary is a mess.  Antoine Winfield is their best cornerback but he is aging.  They signed underachiever Lito Sheppard to man the other side of the field.  Rookie Chris Cook is likely too raw to make much of a difference this season.  Their starting safeties, Tyrell Johnson and Madieu Williams, are very weak.  Without any improvement, the Vikings could be exploited by teams who can pass.

But the problem for other teams isn’t that they can’t take advantage of the Vikings weak secondary, it’s that they don’t have TIME to take advantage of the Vikings weak secondary.  With Allen, Edwards and the Williams boys, the team has one of the best pass rushes in football, and it keeps teams from loading up deep by putting opposing QBs under pressure or on their backsides.

They’ll need to keep doing that if they hope to repeat last year’s run.  The heart of the offense is another year older.  So is the heart of the defense.  The Vikings still have the skill position players to match up with almost anyone, but without a healthy, committed Brett Favre at quarterback, they’ll be lucky to beat the Bears out for second in the division.  If Favre comes back, they will still struggle to best the Packers and will likely not repeat last year’s heroics.

*             *             *

Schedule:

1              At New Orleans

2              Miami

3              Detroit

4              Bye

5              At New York Jets

6              Dallas

7              At Green Bay

8              At New England

9              Arizona

10           At Chicago

11           Green Bay

12           At Washington

13           Buffalo

14           New York Giants

15           Chicago

16           At Philadelphia

17           At Detroit

Prediction:  Favre returns, but it’s more New York Jets Favre than Green Bay Packers Favre.  The Vikes might squeak in with a wild card, but they won’t beat the Packers.  9-7.  2^nd in NFC North.  If Favre does not return, they will be looking at rebuilding.

The two came together in 1967 to produce one of the most iconic games in NFL history.  Dubbed the “Ice Bowl” at the time, the game was played between the Cowboys and the Packers in a wind chill of -48 degrees Fahrenheit.  It was so cold, the refs couldn’t blow their whistles because their lips were sticking to them.  Exposed skin would begin to freeze in about a half hour in that weather.

This being Green Bay, the game was sold out.  Some things in northern Wisconsin are more important than fingers, toes or life: namely, Packers football.  As most of us know, the Packers went on to beat the Cowboys in the game, with Bart Starr plunging over the top in the final minutes to give the Pack a 21-17 win and a trip to Super Bowl II, where they dispatched of the Oakland Raiders quite easily.  That game was played in sunny Miami in much more hospitable weather.

I’m pretty sure that Packer fans have fonder memories for the Ice Bowl.  That is the type of win that defines a franchise.  The cold.  The last second touchdown from a hero quarterback.  A defensive struggle played out on the “frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.”  That’s how Packer fans like to think of their team.

This current Packer team doesn’t really fit that mold.  They have a decent defense with a few holes, but they’re bread and butter is their offense, led by a guy from California of all places!  Instead of grinding it out, the Packers like to throw the ball.  They are not a team built to play in -40 degree temperatures.

Last season this team died in the desert heat.  However, it wasn’t the temperature that did them in, it was their suddenly old and slow secondary.  Green Bay struggled out of the gate last season before going on a great run and finishing 11-5.  Their defense was led by a resurgent Charles Woodson in the secondary, and an excellent defensive front topped by talented rookie Clay Matthews.  The offense failed to click in the first half of the season, but after they re-called veteran tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton, they took off, becoming one of the best offenses in the league.  Rodgers suddenly found himself with more time to throw to Greg Jennings, and the plodding Ryan Grant found more room to run.  The Packers were everyone’s dark horse to make it to the Super Bowl.

And then Kurt Warner rode into town.  In the playoffs, Green Bay’s defense – and Woodson in particular – was shredded by Warner and the Arizona Cardinals 51-45.  In a game of “whoever has the ball last wins,” the Cardinals won by taking the ball away from Rodgers on the first play of overtime and running into the end zone.  If Green Bay is to get back to the playoffs, it will be by outscoring teams; however, hopefully not to the tune of 51-45.

The weakness in Green Bay’s offense is its offensive line.  Yes, the line came together in the second half of last season on the back of two veteran tackles (Tauscher and Clifton), but the key word there is “veteran.”  Both are old.  And they are protecting a QB who likes to hang onto the ball a LONG time.  Protecting Rodgers for long stretches is the key to Green Bay’s deadly passing attack.

In the draft, the Packers grabbed Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga.  He’s a typical Iowa offensive lineman: big, strong, and….slow.  In my opinion, he’s more suited to the right than the left.  We’ll see where the Pack try him out.  Wherever it is, he’s going to have to play considering Tauscher and Clifton’s injury histories.  That could pose some problems for the Packers’ passing game.

If he has the time, Rodgers is one of the best passers in the league.  Helping him out in that regard are a pair of extremely talented receivers in Greg Jennings and Donald Driver as well as one of the best tight ends in football in Jermichael Finley.  The running game is serviceable.  Ryan Grant is not a spectacular runner, but if the hole is there, he’ll find it (eventually) and get a good couple of yards when they need it.  It all adds up to one of the best offenses in the NFL and the key to the Packers’ season.

Well, one of the keys.  The other is the back of the defense.  Last season, the ageless Charles Woodson was fantastic.  Used by defensive coordinator Dom Capers in a jack-of-all-trades role in the secondary, Woodson was able to roam and make plays from a number of different places on the field.  He no longer has the speed to stay with the best receivers, but he can still pick his spots, and Capers gives him the freedom to blitz and roam, almost like a safety in a cornerback’s body.

The other cornerback is similar.  Al Harris is physical, not quite that fast anymore, and old.  Unlike Woodson, he’s hurt, coming off an ACL injury which might further erode his already suspect speed.  The safeties are younger, but not better.  Nick Collins is a good centerfielder, but Atari Bigby is awful.  Morgan Burnett, drafted ostensibly to take Bigby’s place, isn’t likely to do much in his rookie season.  The continued emergence of Collins and the continued extension of the careers of Harris and Woodson will determine just how many games the Packers need to score 51 points to win.

Helping that cause tremendously is the Packers’ front seven.  Their defensive front three are the talented Cullen Jenkins, first round pick BJ Raji, and franchise tagged Ryan Pickett.  Supporting them are two capable inside linebackers in AJ Hawk and Nick Barnett and a star in the making in outside linebacker Clay Matthews.  In his debut year, Matthews racked up nine sacks in 13 games after he took over as a starter.  The question is who will replace former sack-king Aaron Kampman at the other outside linebacker spot.  If opposing offenses can load up against Matthews alone, it’s possible that he will find it harder this time around.

I’m betting not.  The Packers front seven is far from perfect – Hawk is way too slow, Brady Poppinga is a capable player, but not a star to replace Kampman – but they do get after the other team’s QB more effectively than almost any other team in the league.  They can control the game from the trenches and their pass rushing ability allows them to protect their slower cornerbacks.

 The Packers are solid on both sides of the ball.  If they can stay healthy, they have the roster to compete with the Saints, Vikings, and Cowboys as the favorites in the NFC.  However, when you’re up against Brett Favre, Drew Brees and Tony Romo on a regular basis, you’d like to have a little more speed or depth in the secondary.  Woodson’s resurgence last season was a great story, but the turnovers he created covered up a lot of holes in his game.  Harris’ speed will be further diminished by surgery.  It remains to be seen if the offensive line can hold together again with two aging tackles.  The Pack are talented, but have one too many question marks to beat the Saints and Cowboys.

 *             *             *

 Schedule:

1              At Philadelphia

2              Buffalo

3              At Chicago

4              Detroit

5              At Washington

6              Miami

7              Minnesota

8              At New York Jets

9              Dallas

10           Bye

11           At Minnesota

12           At Atlanta

13           San Francisco

14           At Detroit

15           At New England

16           New York Giants

17           Chicago

 Prediction:  They’ll succeed in the regular season, and with a little luck, might make it back to the Super Bowl.  10-6, 1^st in the NFC North.

And they worshipped the middle linebacker.

The Chicago Bears started playing football a mere four years after Sandburg published his poem.  In 1933 they won their first championship game (in THE first championship game).  In 1985 they won their seventh.  Along the way they had great offensive players like Sid Luckman, Gayle Sayers, Walter Payton, and Mike Ditka.  With the possible exception of Payton, none have come to represent the Bears quite like their middle linebackers.  From Bronko Nagurski to Dick Butkus to Mike Singletary, the City of Chicago identifies itself with the leaders of the defense.  The guy making the stops in the middle.  Stacking your skinny running backs and butchering your fair haired QBs.  

The tradition has continued with Brian Urlacher.  A player with the speed of a wide receiver and the size of small defensive end, Urlacher patrols the center of the field with attitude and alacrity.  He is the perfect cover-two linebacker, able to retreat into coverage or move sideline to sideline quickly to make tackles.  Hard hitting and ruthless.

Heck, he’s even bald.  Sandburg would be beside himself.

Unfortunately for the Bears in 2009, he was hurt.  During the first game of the season Urlacher dislocated his wrist and was lost for the year.  The Bears proceeded to win their next three games without him, but then fell off a cliff and lost eight of their next ten.  Without Urlacher, the defense crumbled into a pedestrian unit that gave up yards in bunches and failed to get the requisite amount of turnovers that they usually forced.  The Bears missed the playoffs again. 

The pressure on the team’s management mounted.  The previous season the Bears had gone for broke by giving up two first round draft picks and their starting QB to the Denver Broncos in exchange for QB Jay Cutler, a talented but mercurial character with a strong arm and an even stronger will.  The thinking at the time was that Cutler would bring a dynamic force to an anemic offense, and that they could now score points to support their world class defense.

It didn’t quite turn out that way.  The offense sputtered as the offensive line collapsed.  Cutler found himself constantly under pressure, which resulted in his throwing a ton of interceptions (if you believe Cutler; however others will tell you that those interceptions were unforced and caused by Cutler’s bad reads and poor mechanics).  Other than rookie speedster Johnny Knox, the receiving corps bombed.  Second year back Matt Forte had a terrible season.  They cumulated more yards than the previous season, but not by much, and the yards didn’t result in more points or wins.  The offense was a complete disaster and the Cutler trade looked like a bust.

The defense wasn’t much better.  In addition to Urlacher, key defensive tackle Tommie Harris suffered (another) injury, limiting his pass rushing abilities which killed the Bears’ defense.  You see, the Bears play what’s known as a cover-two.  This defense relies upon the front four defensive linemen to get pressure on the QB, and the rest of the defense to drop into zone coverage.  Good zone coverage linebackers (speedy, smart) like Urlacher and Lance Briggs, will eat up any short passes and cause turnovers galore.  There won’t be any time for long passes because the defensive line will be getting pressure.  That’s the theory.

But the cover two can be beaten.  Cover two defenses will let you complete short, quick passes.  They are vulnerable against power running teams.  If the safeties can’t cover, they’re vulnerable to the deep out.  All of these vulnerabilities are magnified if you can’t get any pressure from your front four defensive linemen.

Which is exactly what happened to the Bears.  Without Tommie Harris’ inside penetration or presence, or Urlacher’s ability in the middle of the field, opponents could double team defensive end Alex Brown and have plenty of time to either nickel and dime the Bears down the field, or take advantage of their slower linebackers and safeties deeper down the middle.  The Bears defense was a mess, they were forced to blitz to get any pressure on the QB, which resulted in more holes being opened in the secondary.  They gave up 45 points to the Bengals.  41 to the Cardinals.  36 to the Vikings.  31 to the Ravens.  They finished in the bottom third of the league in points allowed for the first time in Lovie Smith’s head coaching tenure.  Radical changes seemed to be afoot.

*             *             *

The Bears came into the offseason with a definite need to upgrade various parts of their team.  The first upgrade was made in the coaching staff.  The majority of the offensive coaches were fired after the season ended.  In their place, the Bears hired pass happy guru Mike Martz and offensive line savant Mike Tice.  Then Lovie Smith promoted longtime friend and defensive line specialist Rod Marinelli to defensive coordinator, effectively firing himself from the position he held the previous year calling the defensive plays.

Martz is known as a mad genius; a man who knows offense, but who is so single minded in his approach and his belief in his own infallibility that he will not create an offense that suits his personnel, but rather will make the offense he wants to run.  Fortunately for Martz, the offense he wants to run usually runs pretty well.  The creator of the “greatest show on turf” in the late 90s, Martz runs a system that sends out three or four pass receivers into deep patterns and trusts the QB to put the ball in the right place at the right time.  When effective, it can be close to unstoppable.  But to be effective, it requires the offensive line to block with only five linemen at a time with little help.  In other words, the QB is going to be under an extreme amount of pressure if the offensive tackles are weak.

Weak is a word that describes the Bears’ offensive tackles last season.  Ancient Orlando Pace was awful.  Chris Williams was still getting his legs on the right side.  The guards were a disaster, even all-pro center Olin Kreutz showed signs of slowing down.  The Bears had little ability to address the problem externally, and are hoping that Williams’ move to left tackle will help slow the other team’s best pass rushers.  Fortunately for them, Williams looked like the real deal at left tackle late in the season and might live up to his lofty first round draft status in due time.

Additionally, Mike Tice is an excellent offensive line coach.  In his previous stint as coach in Minnesota, he took a rag tag line of aging veterans and a young stud and made them into a well oiled machine, blocking for Robert Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Chris Carter, and some guy named Moss.  Under Tice, the Vikings sent 10 offensive linemen to the pro bowl in 5 years.

As for the rest of the offense, the Bears made a splash in free agency by signing blocking tight end Brandon Manumaleuna and scatback Chester Taylor.  Both seem to be curious deals.  Manumaleuna is strictly a blocker, but traditionally Mike Martz does not use blocking tight ends and the Bears have a pass catching tight end in Greg Olsen already on the roster.  It could be that the Bears recognize their deficiency at right tackle and plan to keep Manumaleuna in to block on obvious passing downs to buy Cutler more time.  Taylor is also an interesting choice considering his age (30) and that his game mimics that of their current running back, Matt Forte.  Both are very good at catching the ball out of the backfield.  Based on last year’s performances, Taylor is a better bet this season, but any success that comes will likely be from an improved offensive line and offensive scheme.

The part of the offense the Bears did not touch was the receiving corps.  Last year the Bears receivers were awful.  After converting the greatest kick returner in NFL history to a wide receiver, the Bears placed a great amount of trust in Devin Hester’s ability to become a solid NFL receiver.  It didn’t happen.  Hester is fast, but he’s no receiver.  He struggles to run routes and read defenses.  He struggles to get off the line.  He struggles to catch balls not thrown directly to him.  In other words, he struggles to be an NFL receiver, even if he did get a 99 rating for speed on Madden.

Speaking of speed, the Bears other receiving threat has it in spades.  Fifth round pick Johnny Knox burst on to the scene as the one bright spot in the Bears offensive season.  His ability to run past defenders allowed the Bears to score on the kind of plays they thought Hester would be creating.  But Knox too struggled to get off the line in press coverage and catch the ball in traffic.  Suffice to say, the Bears have issues at wide receiver that were not addressed by their free agent splurge.

What was addressed was the defensive line.  The Bears let veteran LDE Alex Brown and veteran RDE Adewale Ogunleye leave.  In their place, they signed former #2 pick in the draft Julius Peppers.  The former Carolina Panther is an athletic freak: tall, fast and powerful.  When he wants to be, he is one of the best pass rushers in the league.  Getting him to “want to be” will make or break the Bears season.

Having a motivated Peppers at LDE will make former pro-bowl DT Tommie Harris a better player, which will hopefully make the rest of the defensive line better.  The Bears have intriguing prospects in Marcus Harrison and Jarron Gilbert at DT to play along with Anthony Adams and Harris.  Longtime foot soldier Israel Idonije will man the RDE spot.  It is a solid line led by two outstanding talents and a handful of athletic prospects.

The linebackers are an aging but talented group.  Urlacher and Briggs are still two of the best in the game.  But they are reaching the age in which players who rely on speed begin to fall off.  Both are now in their 30s.  The other linebacker spot will be manned by the athletic Nick Roach or the reliable Pisa Tinoisamoa.  The linebackers are the still the strength of the team.

If the linebackers are the strength, the secondary is the weakness.  Cornerback Charles Tillman is still a good player despite some high profile mistakes last season.  Opposite him will be a mixed bag of either Zack Bowman or Corey Graham, neither of whom is very good at being a cornerback.  The safeties are equally suspect.  Veteran Chris Harris, second year man Al Afalava and rookie Major Wright will be competing for time.  None of them will make Bears fans forget Gary Fencik or Mike Brown.

The Bears still run the cover-two defense made popular by the Steelers in the 70s and Tony Dungy (who played for two of those Steelers teams) in the 90s and 00s.  The defense relies upon its speed and pass rush to create turnovers in a bend-but-don’t-break style.  The Bears will let you dink and dunk down the field, but they trust their defense to keep you out of the end zone, and to put enough pressure on you to make a mistake.  It worked for years, but there is a feeling around the league that everyone has caught up to it and now knows how to beat it.  After watching a very very average Brian Griese throw 67 times for 400 yards on the Bears in 2008, it should have been obvious to the Lovie Smith too.

*             *             *

The Bears have gone all-in on 2010.  They traded two years worth of draft picks to get Jay Cutler.  They then spent two years worth of McCaskey family profits to get Julius Peppers, Chester Taylor and Brandon Manumaleuna.  After their Super Bowl trip in 2006, the Bears have failed to make the playoffs for three straight seasons.  There is a perception that the franchise is spinning its wheels and that the window on this once great defense is closing.

This is the last gasp.  Martz has improved every offense in his first year at every team he’s ever been (including the woeful Detroit Lions).  Tice is an excellent offensive line coach and Chris Williams gives them a quality left tackle to help against the division’s pass rushing specialists.  Peppers is one of the best in the league at a skill that the Bears desperately need to drive their defense.  Urlacher returns to be the beast they need in the middle.  The pieces that were missing from before – explosive offensive ability, explosive pass rushing ability – seem to be in place to return the Bears to the type of team they were when they made their Super Bowl run.

However, one can’t help but feel that the Bears have gone all in two hands too late.  The defense is older.  The secondary no longer has Mike Brown calling the shots and the cover-two is significantly more vulnerable without a quality safety.  Briggs and Urlacher are older.  The corners were picked on mercilessly last season. 

Likewise, the offense doesn’t seem like a Bears offense.  Playing in the wind and the poor weather of Soldier Field in November, the Bears have traditionally relied on a punishing ground game that uses time of possession and field position to dominate opponents rather than a high wire, quick strike passing attacks.  But Mike Martz doesn’t do ground games, and Jay Cutler doesn’t do possession football.  They are both gamblers who go for broke.  If the Bears are to win next season, it will be because the offense gambled without turning the ball over, and the defense gambled to create a high number of turnovers.  Without that, it is likely that a new Bears regime will be picking early and often in next year’s player draft.

*             *             *

Schedule:

1              Detroit

2              At Dallas

3              Green Bay

4              At New York Giants

5              At Carolina Panthers

6              Seattle

7              Washington

8              Bye

9              At Buffalo

10           Minnesota

11           At Miami

12           Philadelphia

13           At Detroit

14           New England

15           At Minnesota

16           New York Jets

17           At Green Bay

*             *             *

Prediction: the Bears have enough to be competitive, but not enough to save their front office’s jobs.  8-8.  3^rd in the NFC North.  No playoffs.